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Canada is currently facing a housing crisis, largely attributed to rising immigration rates, compounded by its position as having the most expensive real estate market among G7 nations. While Canada has a long history of controversial immigration policies, many locals now point fingers at immigrants as the cause of this issue. Furthermore, a growing number of Canadians are expressing concerns over the potential for a second Donald Trump presidency, which could potentially drive immigration numbers even higher. You can read more about these developments on CNN.
North America has long welcomed immigrants and takes pride in its multiculturalism. While many Western countries face criticism for their migration policies, Canada has a reputation as a hospitable and immigrant-friendly nation. Since Justin Trudeau became prime minister in 2015, Canada’s annual immigrant intake has risen from around 300,000 to 400,000 persons. In 2022, the government set an ambitious goal of accepting 500,000 annually by 2025. Despite the record numbers of immigrants since 2019, Canadians continued to hold favorable views of newcomers, according to an Environics poll in 2022. However, in recent years, this goodwill is fading.
In June 2023, Canada’s population reached 40 million, significantly increasing from the previous year. The population grew by over 1 million in a year, with 96% of this increase attributable to immigrants. Although 51% of Canadians still reject the proposition that immigration levels are too high, there has been a noticeable shift. The gap between those who oppose and those who agree has narrowed from 42% to 7% over the past year, marking the most significant change since the Environics Institute began its survey in 1977.
International students and temporary workers have played a significant role in Canada’s recent population growth, contributing to nearly 3 million citizens with temporary residence permits. This immigration-driven growth could more than double the country’s population over the next 50 years. Statistics Canada estimates the population will reach 62.8 million by 2074, up from 40.1 million in 2023.
Housing crisis fuels discontent
The growing public discontent toward immigration largely stems from Canada’s housing crisis. The OECD reported in 2022 that Canada had the most expensive housing market among G7 nations. Housing prices soared 90% between 2010 and 2022, making it one of the least affordable markets in the world.
Many Canadians tend to scapegoat immigrants despite the crisis being driven by long-standing government policies. Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies, emphasized that the housing crisis and economic concerns are fueling a shift in attitudes toward immigration.
Even the Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) acknowledged that public servants warned two years ago that housing construction was not keeping up with population growth. The government knew the increasing number of immigrants would strain the healthcare system and make housing less affordable.
Immigration Minister Mark Miller has announced that the Canadian government will be reducing the number of temporary residents in the country. While immigration has fueled population growth in recent years, it has also exacerbated housing shortages, increased rents, strained healthcare services, and contributed to a stagnant economy. These challenges have prompted the Trudeau government to lower the proportion of temporary residents from 6.2% in 2023 to 5% by 2027, a nearly 20% reduction. Additionally, Canada will cut the number of student visas by 35% in 2024, disappointing international students.
The Trudeau government’s decision to adjust immigration levels in response to current economic conditions is understandable, given how important immigrants are to Canada’s prosperity. However, some politicians and public figures remain hesitant to discuss immigration limits due to concerns about appearing xenophobic.
Canada has a history of contentious immigration policies. In 1885, the government imposed the notorious Chinese Head Tax, initially charging Chinese immigrants $50 to enter the country. This fee later rose to $500. The 1923 Chinese Immigration Act, commonly known as the Chinese Exclusion Act, virtually banned Chinese immigrants until it was repealed in 1947. This law, the first to exclude individuals based on ethnicity, remained in place until 1947, and the federal government did not formally apologize for it until 2006.
More recently, concerns have arisen over Quebec’s controversial Law 21, passed in 2019. The law prohibits public employees in positions of authority from wearing religious symbols. In 2021, an elementary school teacher in Chelsea, Quebec, was dismissed for refusing to remove her traditional Muslim headscarf. The case sparked public outrage, but the Superior Court of Quebec upheld the law, despite acknowledging that it infringes upon religious minorities’ freedom of expression and religion.
Possible effects of a second Trump presidency on Canada’s immigration system
Should former US President Donald Trump secure a second term, Canada could face an influx of immigrants. During his 2016 campaign, Trump vowed to deport illegal immigrants from the US. While legal and bureaucratic barriers prevented him from fully executing this plan, many believe he would take more aggressive action in a second term, potentially leading to the deportation of up to 11 million people. Former US Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman has suggested that many of these individuals would likely seek refuge in Canada.
Trump’s immigration stance remains popular among Americans. A recent CBS poll found that 62% of voters support a national program to deport all illegal immigrants. Even if legal challenges prevent mass deportations, the fear and uncertainty created by such policies could prompt many immigrants to head north to Canada.
Potential impact of a second Trump Presidency on Canada’s immigration system
If former US President Donald Trump wins a second term, Canada may face an immigration surge. During his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to deport illegal immigrants from the US. Although legal and bureaucratic obstacles prevented him from fulfilling this plan, many believe he would pursue it more aggressively in a second term, potentially deporting up to 11 million people. Former US Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman said these individuals would likely flee north to Canada.
Trump’s immigration plans remain popular among Americans. A recent CBS poll showed that 62% of voters support a national program to deport all illegal immigrants. Even if legal hurdles prevent mass deportations, fear and uncertainty among immigrants could drive many to seek refuge in Canada.
